RISK MANAGEMENT IN RICE FARMING USING HYBRID FMEA-AHP: A CASE STUDY FROM HAMPARAN PERAK, INDONESIA

Abstract

Background and Objective: Climate change poses significant risks to the continuity of rice farming, necessitating precise risk management efforts. This study aims to analyze and prioritize risks in rice farming associated with climate change. Materials and Methods: Conducted on a micro-scale in Hamparan Perak District, Deli Serdang Regency, Indonesia, this research engaged two experts in risk analysis and assessment. The methodology combined Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) with Risk Priority Number (RPN) calculations and integrated the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to enhance analysis accuracy. The research focused on production and cost risks, identifying 41 relevant failure modes. Results: The findings include a prioritized risk ranking based on RPN calculations multiplied by AHP relative weights. The four priority risks identified were: 1. Strong Winds: During the generative stage, strong winds knock down rice plants, severely impacting production. 2. Fertilizer Shortage: A shortage during the vegetative phase increases costs. 3. Floods during the Generative Period: Flooding damages the grain, reducing quality and lowering selling prices. 4. Floods during Vegetative Phase. This results in substantial damage to the rice plants. Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of targeted risk management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on rice farming.