Impact of econometric modeling and perspectives of economic security of the cross-industry complex

Abstract

The paper presents a forecast of the economic security of the inter-industry complex through the construction of a simulation  model.  The  authors  considered  the  possibility of  using  an  econometric  model  in  predicting  the  level  of economic security of the inter-industry complex. The goal was to form a definition of the definition of "inter-industry complex",  as  well  as  to  study  the  issues  of  conceptual  and  fundamental  methods  of  econometric  modeling  and forecasting the development of regional industry markets in dynamics. A range of issues related to the main components of economic security in the inter-industry complex has been allocated for scientific work in order to analyze the impact of the components of economic security on the integral indicator. The paper uses a methodology for predicting the structural  and  spatio-temporal  dynamics  of  interbranch  complexes,  which  includes  new  and  refined  methods  of modeling  and  forecasting.  As  a  result,  the  authors  proposed  the  definition  of  "inter-industry  complex",  "economic security in the inter-industry complex", as well as the general provisions of the methodology for econometric modeling and forecasting the level of economic security of the inter-industry complex. The paper presents a full-scale simulation model that allows you to set, evaluate and make a decision using large nonlinear data. This kind of system contains dynamic and retarded data, which makes it possible to apply econometric modeling in automatic calculation.